phoenix well, page-4

Petergm, if you are asking those type of questions then you really shouldn't be investing in oil & gas exploration companies. I think the statistic for this type of well is 1 hit in every 10. Appraisal wells are around 5-6 in every 10. Companies drill these wells because the rewards on a commercial hit are great.

But the drill bit doesn't lie! Apache have drilled 100's of wells in Australia and have they had hundreds of success not a chance?

Just because they have spent lots of money doesn't mean that there is a guarantee of success. Shell for example spent around 200 million on Palta-1 just recently - duster!

I'm invested in CVN but I certainly know the risks in this game.

My rating for Phoenix is this;
Gas discovery: 30-40% (I think there will be a good trap).
Getting enough pay zone: 100% The well looks to higher up the structure so I don't think we'll have any problems with the GWC (Gas Water Contact).
Commercial: 20% I'm not sure that the porosity of the Sandstone will be good enough, if it's gas filled with a good trap then this should improve.

Overall: 30% chance which is better than a wild cat and not too similar to an appraisal well.