Disagree. The buying of UMC is inherently risky. My...

Disagree. The buying of UMC is inherently risky. My interpretation is that these guys are buying deliberately to take on risk for a big pay day later on and not for the crumbs.

I bought again just now because I have a high risk appetite. In fact, I hope the deal gets shot down and I don't really care if the SP goes backwards (knee-jerk) in the short term. In the long term, I am confident this will pay handsomely (hence my one-way bet description - obviously from a long term perspective).

If as many suspect, the SP may fall if the bid fails, then for the meagre gains of $1.30-$1.29 (annualized at 9.2%) it just isn't worth the while. In other words, the risk is too high (assuming a 50/50 probability of SP rising or falling if the deal is scuttled). A on-call account pays 6% and there is no risk.

If these guys are so confident that they won't lose their shirts if the deal doesn't happen (i.e the SP is likely to rise), then the likelihood of the deal not happening should be increasing.