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So to summarise your post:- will flow commercially and even...

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Roch2077

10,189 Posts.

1986

12/01/24

20:11

Post #: 71857397
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Originally posted by Grfe4: ↑

Thank you WatfordLad. Regarding the final net pay estimates, in particular in the UA, it is not always the case that calibration of log porosities to compaction corrected swc porosities leads to a higher porosity - from my experience the opposite can occur and that would mean the net pay thickness would decrease.

In my opinion, rather than emphasize there is no requirement for hydraulic fracturing in the UA and plan next year's well test around limited net pay intervals, it would be better to utilize stimulation/fracking to prove up as much net pay as possible and obviously that would help create share price appreciation. The alternative would likely lead to SP flop as occurred following the discovery announcement.

There has been far too much fooling around in my opinion, for example, photos of residual gas from the Pebbly Arkose (stupid and annoying), statements such as "great success so far" (?) and "shooting fish in a barrel" is misleading. There's no guarantee of good quality reservoir in any of the prospects in the Basin Margin or the central fairway. Statements from SM regarding alternative sources of funding were another broken promise as we discovered recently there was yet another dilutive CR with options.

They are now telling us there's no need for fracking as they are going to achieve a successful test result from only 10-20m net pay in the UA - I am expecting another flop in SP in June. Stim/fracking the remaining gas bearing rock should generate more than 50m pay in the UA. A large net pay interval will have a positive impact on the valuation. Of course there will also be very good initial flow rates from the Lower Angwa in M-2, but if the GIIP is relatively low, it may not be sufficient to bolster the share price.

If the flow test based on natural flow in the UA is disappointing, I have calculated that the 13.9m net pay may only produce around 2 mmscf/d without stimulation, but it could flow at approx 6 mmscf/d following a successful frac job.

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So to summarise your post:

- will flow commercially and even better in the lower Angwa but Upper Angwa use fracking to improve flow rate

thanks commercial flow is a given but more excited for the 3 billion dollar offtake agreement that gets signed off after commercial flow.

2 months to go to begin preparations for commercial flow but first samples, ceremony and PPSA in next 1-3 weeks

Last edited by Roch2077: 12/01/24

IVZ Price at posting: 11.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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So to summarise your post:- will flow commercially and even...

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So to summarise your post:- will flow commercially and even...

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