phosphate note, page-19

Several points.
In periods of booms, many players announce themselves on stage, few actually go on to production. Those that do make production usually shoot for the stars and fall short of those predictions. While many might predict an oversupply soon, history tells us that it will be a few years before supply catches up.

Secondly demand for fertilisers will increase as more marginal land is put into food production. The best land is sitting around modern cities and is built on. More fertilizers will be required to keep up with that demand.

Thirdly, increase incomes in China, india and other developing nations is increasing the demand for meat which increases the demand for grains. With higher grain prices comes incresed demand for fertilizer to make them grow.

Penultimately, the doomsayers will pile in claiming new, bigger players will crush the market but the world isn't short of iron ore and the price still rises. Look how many iron ore speccies are running around WA with rising SPs. Obviously the market is optimistic about those prospects. It is a supply/demand issue not a shortage of supply.

Finally no one on this thread has claimed that if you buy MAK you must hold for 20 years, some will get out after the next Ann, some will hold until $10, others $50 and crazies will wait for $100. Even if the price of Rock Phosphate drops in 2013, there is a good chance most of us on this thread will have moved on to another promising stock by then. We are all going to die one day yet we get up in the morning and face the world. It is pretty pessimistic to claim doom in 5 years time so don't worry about buying MAK now. If you haven't got clear research on Saudi Phosphate suppliers and/or world Phosphate prices then move on and share your Dad's stock tip with someone else.