Hi Charhad,The bigger indicator, in my view, to watch as to...

Hi Charhad,

The bigger indicator, in my view, to watch as to forward fert demand is the price of grains. If grains are up, then fert demand & prices will follow. Yellowcake has long promoted that idea, which I entirely support.

Yes, there has been some upward price pressure due to slower supply out some areas of Nth Africa, but that's so far minimal compared to the significant influence high grain prices have had on plantings & therefore fert application. Global farm economics are far more favourable than they've been for quite some time, so farmers (& their bankers) are happy to buy (& support the buying of) fert. And as a result up go prices of fert & its feedstock.

We haven't seen any major supply shocks out of Nth Africa/Middle East yet, so the price of fert feedstock incl phosphates reflects that. Goodness knows what RP, DAP & phos acid suppliers could command price-wise if Morocco & other significant Nth African/Middle Eastern phosphate suppliers couldn't supply for a period, and that may still be a possibility - who knows.

In short I think the current price of phosphate products is sustainable long-term as grain prices are likely to remain high for some time. The world needs to desperately rebuild grain inventories as they are extremely low at present & in the view of some commentators, will take multiple seasons to rebuild/replenish, and that's on the basis we don't experience as many destructive weather events going forward as we have in the last 12-18mths.

Time will tell, I guess.

Good luck to all MAK holders, pareticularly the patient ones.

Cheers