phosphate rock world production and reserves

This is taken from the US Geological Survey in their January 2008 summary of phosphate:

World mine production, reserves and reserve base (all in millions of tonnes):

production 2007 reserves reserve base
(selected countries)
US 29.7 1200 3400
Aus 2.2 77 1200
Brazil 6 260 370
china 35 6600 13000
egypt 2.3 100 760
morocco 28 5700 21000
south africa 2.7 1500 2500


total world 147 18000 50000


Data excludes large phosphate resources identified in zones where current technology makes mining uneconomic - eg. continental shelves of Atlantic & Pacific.


What is interesting here is that reserves are massive in comparision to current production, and with the reported huge price increases I imagine wonarah isnt the only deposit being 'mapped out for mining', lol. Given MAK is looking at 2+ yrs to production and has only just commenced hard yakka on the project in 2008, I imagine that by the time MAK comes to look to mine that there will be a fair bit more of worldwide reserves joining it in production. Big point here is that prices in 2010 may not be where all the bluesky supporters expect.

Interestingly, the US - the worlds largest rock phosphate - has according to the USGS an average dollar per ton, fob mined costs of between $27 and $39. No doubt at least some of their reserves will be economic in the 50-100 tonne range, more above that range. Given the phosphate price starting rising steeply at the start of 2007 I'd think these guys in the US, the largest producers with sizeable reserves, would have the jump on MAK. And it will also be unrealistic to expect MAK to enjoy continued higher prices after production.