AEV

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0.4¢ avenira limited

I don’t think you buy Avenira if you don’t believe in the phos...

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Barry81

3,157 Posts.

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19/12/23

11:17

Post #: 71523215
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Originally posted by growler1969: ↑

I am reading a few posts with the general theme: at 0.012 AEV is under-valued.

If that is the case, can anyone offer an alternative valuation?

As I've posted previously, I do not assign any value to the Yellow Phosphate Project because AEV haven't released any studies. Further, at the current MC and development stage, the LFP Project wouldn't get funded. As such, I assign zero to this too.

The only DFS is for DSO which will generate $27.m free cash flow over 23 months at the stated prices in the study. Those prices are conservative based on current market pricing, however, AEV does not have a BOA which supports the DFS assumptions or market pricing. I think AEV 'gamed' the DSO DFS by only having a 23 month project life. With a 14 month project payback, I'd suggest the NPV/IRR would be quite low if they extended the project. In my experience, companies with a path to production which includes ample funding, will be valued at 50-65% of NPV and then track toward NPV as they come into production. Personally, AEV has a huge resource and I'd like a longer timeframe on the DSO.

When I include 150m performance rights to Alees, AEV is nearly valued at $30m. As such, I think AEV is fully-valued at 0.012 with the information we currently have. Obviously, new information such as BOA, Yellow Phosphate PFS/DFS, LFP DFS, then new valuation.

I expect all holders to disagree. All well and good. But rather than pulling a valuation/SP out of the proverbial, perhaps provide some assumptions.

All imo

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I don’t think you buy Avenira if you don’t believe in the phos acid and lfp projects. I don’t think hebang and GEAR would have bought into Avenira based on a 23 month dso.

go have a look at centrex sounds like they got more of what you are looking for eg offtake agreements close to rail infrastructure long term rock phos project.

though they are struggling with funding

or CII

Last edited by Barry81: 19/12/23

AEV Price at posting: 1.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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