Profercy Phosphates - 23 Sep 2010"Global Phosphates PositionThe...

Profercy Phosphates - 23 Sep 2010

"Global Phosphates Position

The global phosphates market continues very firm. Booming end-user demand is hottest in the West, with Brazil joining the USA as a big volume mover.

In the East, the main surpise is news that Phoschem has bought 100,000t Australian DAP to cover contract business in India. Chinese exporters are still in self-imposed withdrawl, as local supply guarantees dominate their agenda. Both issues mean spot DAP availability East of Suez is tightening rapidly.

On the raw materials front, Mosaic appears to be feeling the pinch over its rock Florida production trouble. US downstream output is already heard declining. The first panamax lot of Moroccan rock to Mosaic for Louisiana is already on the water, with substantial volumes to follow. Phosphoric acid and phosphate rock contract price talks for Q4 are on the agenda from now into next week."

"US domestic: ...Early October is consolidating the $560pst fob level." (talking of DAP)

"Morocco; ....Prices were heard in the low $560s pt fob on DAP and +$20 pt for MAP."

The above report & many others of the same tone are certainly encouraging after DAP pricing was not much above US$250-260 pt around 18mths ago. The head winds from the GFC and resultant fert demand & pricing destruction and more recently the RSPT were huge, but we have negotiated our way thru all of this and find ourselves on the cusp of a wave that we could ride thru to production and beyond. Now is not the time for one to get impatient, otherwise one might be kicking oneself in the near term, let alone the MT & LT.

If the world's largest miners are increasing their interest & position in the fert feed-stock industry, why ever would you want to exit because things are taking longer than desired to recover from the financial hell that prevailed not that long ago. Anyway that my view for what its worth.