I'm reasonably confident it will be below the IPO price within 9-12 months. It's not worth more than 30c-40c right now, imo; covid retail boom unwinding, unsustainable ad spending with low ROI, founder selling down and the opaqueness around how merchants are getting supply of these brands. The pumpy announcements around becoming a seller on JD and the beauty products thing were pretty transparent. They need to show that the business involves a bit more than pointing a fire hose filled with cash at advertising (seriously, $2 spend for $1 increase in GP). I don't believe they currently can maintain the growth profile they need to justify the valuation while at the same time reducing marketing costs to show a pathway to sustainable profitability. That's basically the crux of it.
Why you'd value this on a revenue multiple is absolutely beyond me. They are a reseller with the (shrinking) GPM of any run of the mill retailer. Sure they might be growing quickly but it's not hitting the bottom line – gross profit doesn't even cover marketing spend. The founder has basically telegraphed he's going to dump more shares. It's hard to see a reason to buy when Mintz is selling 10s of millions of dollars worth every time he gets the chance.
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$2.24 |
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Mkt cap ! $853.9M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.23 | $2.26 | $2.21 | $4.806M | 2.148M |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 148395 | $2.24 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$2.26 | 11947 | 1 |
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4 | 32794 | 2.220 |
1 | 1317 | 2.210 |
8 | 41335 | 2.200 |
2 | 1786 | 2.190 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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2.260 | 11947 | 1 |
2.270 | 1746 | 1 |
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