I'm reasonably confident it will be below the IPO price within 9-12 months. It's not worth more than 30c-40c right now, imo; covid retail boom unwinding, unsustainable ad spending with low ROI, founder selling down and the opaqueness around how merchants are getting supply of these brands. The pumpy announcements around becoming a seller on JD and the beauty products thing were pretty transparent. They need to show that the business involves a bit more than pointing a fire hose filled with cash at advertising (seriously, $2 spend for $1 increase in GP). I don't believe they currently can maintain the growth profile they need to justify the valuation while at the same time reducing marketing costs to show a pathway to sustainable profitability. That's basically the crux of it.
Why you'd value this on a revenue multiple is absolutely beyond me. They are a reseller with the (shrinking) GPM of any run of the mill retailer. Sure they might be growing quickly but it's not hitting the bottom line – gross profit doesn't even cover marketing spend. The founder has basically telegraphed he's going to dump more shares. It's hard to see a reason to buy when Mintz is selling 10s of millions of dollars worth every time he gets the chance.
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Last
$1.39 |
Change
0.040(2.96%) |
Mkt cap ! $529.9M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.36 | $1.50 | $1.36 | $5.616M | 3.940M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
6 | 32408 | $1.39 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.42 | 3300 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 8546 | 1.390 |
1 | 10000 | 1.385 |
1 | 10948 | 1.370 |
1 | 3652 | 1.360 |
1 | 7250 | 1.355 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.450 | 7042 | 1 |
1.455 | 220 | 1 |
1.460 | 1000 | 1 |
1.470 | 21056 | 2 |
1.475 | 13396 | 2 |
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