It is probably more relevant to wonder about the close in a week's time.
If you think about what is happening for the company in the real world at the moment, it may have some bearing:
1. They are on a brokers' tour of the Eastern States (if you believe the poster yesterday who said he got a call from Shaw's saying that ICG had just been in and given a presentation)
2. They have virtually no funds left: barely enough to pay directors and management, maintain tenement costs and keep the office open (if you believe their last quarterly report, which said they had just over $1.2m cash left and would be spending $1.0m to end of March quarter - most of it now spent, on two very expensive diamond drillholes and subsequent assays)
3. If they come back empty handed from this brokers' tour, they will be in dire straits, and the brokers know it so they will screw them for the cheapest stock they can get, if they decide they want any at all.
4. To sell the story to a room full of brokers, the company needs to be giving them a compelling reason why the share price will go up in the very near future. (This is a very short-term traders market. Brokers won't buy the stock unless they can see a short term, profitable exit strategy. Their idea of short-term is less than 4 weeks.) The only compelling scenario I can think of that ICG could give them on this time scale is some sort of corporate action, as there isn't any money left to do any more drilling.
5. So there they are, out doing a roadshow of brokers in the Eastern States: three or four presentatons a day, and at each presentation the lead guy on one of the desks drags a dozen or so of the other dealers away from their own desks, and carts them into the conference room to hear what the company has to say.
Every second that these guys are away from their desks they are missing client calls, losing income, and not watching the market. They are not making a cent. But they're in there, and they're only in there for one purpose: they want to hear one good reason why they should buy the stock for their clients, knowing they will make brokerage without pissing the clients off by buying a stock that then falls in price, and knowing that they stand a good chance of getting themselves and their clients back out of this risky position at a big, quick profit.
6. And are these guys hearing what they need to hear to make them buy? Are they going back to their desks and picking up the phone to clients for the rest of the day, going: "Just saw a great presentation from ICG! You've got to have some of this!!"? Or are they slipping away after 5 minutes, to get back to the desk and back to what they were making money on before they were interrupted, thinking: "That was a waste of time", and forgetting they even heard of ICG five seconds later?
What is the market suggesting?
Well, it's suggesting to me that the presentations aren't causing a lot of upward buying pressure, and that the share price will probably be back to where it came from by the end of next week. Worse still if they come back empty handed.
And it's a pity that the company burnt the 'angel' that had been bankrolling them, in a moment of overconfidence. The million bucks that was on offer then could be paying their executive salaries and office rent for the next 12 months, whilst they regroup.
(Pay no attention to any of my thinking aloud though, and certainly do not act on it. I am not a financial adviser and this is not financial advice. I hope I am wrong)
ICG Price at posting:
4.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
