Doing some rough calculations:
- USA GvHD market is expected to be 8x Japan's
- treatment cost is expected to be 1.25-2x cost of Temcell
- latest Japan revenue from Temcell is $6.6m usd ($9m aud)
- Projected annual USA revenue at 2020 levels therefore = $90m-$144m aud
-Assuming a p/e ratio of 41.8 (equivalent of csl) value of Rynocil approval gives a sp of: $6.43-$10.29 or a valuation of MSB of $3.762b-$6.019b
- Note that this excludes milestone payments, future Rynocil and Temcell earnings growth and any potential earning from future unapproved products including Covid-19 ARDS.
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