I've be holding BTA since $1.95 on speculation that CSL's...

I've be holding BTA since $1.95 on speculation that CSL's Tamiflu would start to show viral resistance, which has started to materialise over the onset of the northern hemisphere flu season.

From my research tamiflu holds 80% market share in stockpiles vs relenza as the other major competitor.

I don't think what we are seeing is a rebalancing of sentiment towards relenza as a front line treatment, but my speculation is that CSL could make a play for the LANI license from BTA or it could make a play for all of BTA. CSL have the capital base to mop up BTA and protect there anti-viral market share with LANI the next anti-viral blockbuster.

The latest analyst report pegs BTA @ 2.72 without consideration of LANI. Some analysts have weighted LANI alone at $1.20.

The market for anti-virals like Relenza and Lani are really in there infancy at the moment, at worst BTA is a HOLD for next fy as relenza royalties roll in from global stockpiling, with blue sky to be delivered from Lani news.

My opinion only, based on pure speculation. GL to all.