Pick Today's Price Range Low-High... Just for Fun, page-134

I believe LED (LearningEachDay( has had experience buying options. And I believe she commented to the effect that because they are time associated that is something that has to be taken into account.

If I am firmly and confidently of the view that SI will get another CRL if he submits without another further trial (which can generate new data - that would be its purpose to get to an adequate and well controlled threshold and to produce enough uncontaminated data so as to clearly link potency assay components with outcomes) BUT Silviu doesn't actually do what he merely intends to do - I.E at this stage he merely "intends" (to quote from the latest announcement) to submit by end of quarter, then the resulting outcome (the FDA rejecting within 6 months - potency assay stuff again - no meeting the requirement for at least one adequate and well controlled trial again) can't be precisely placed in a time context.

I'd have to finance further the uncertainty produced by Silviu merely intending to do something (actually make a BLA submission in the quarter) rather than commiting to do it.

I am not really that interested in making money out of being negative. I am actually more inclined to want to improve outcomes with constructive criticism - but constructive criticism can't be produced for nothing and isn't much rewarded - in fact its punished - whereas getting the right side of a binary bet (even the negative side) can be rewarding.

All that is really needed is someone I can trust to pay-up to take the other side of the binary bet - then we could discuss the amount of the bet. All except one other thing - anonymity has value - and one loses anonymity when one discloses one's identity (which you need to do - to make a contract - a bet - an to be reliably paid if your are right) - so - that value of the bet has to be sufficient to cover the inconvenience of having potential trolls and nuisances know one's identity.