Err ok ... I decided to pop in here for a look and I see a lot of attempts to distort & misguide interpretations of data.
Everybody wants to be a hero and rightly predict a "crash" and be a part of the "I told you so first" factor. I say show me the proof -- eg. your short positions & contract notes.
The falling GDP is not due to negative fundamentals. The rate hike cycle and CAPEX imports used for further business investment have contributed to declining GDP. Neither are economically unhealthy, and we are in economic expansion. It is expected that export volumes will increase from previous years' business investment as a result of accomodative commodity prices.
GDP is still positive and within _sustainable_ levels ie. RBA 2-3% pa comfort range and means the economy is still _growing_.
"Income is on a downtrend which is bad in an environment with rapidly rising asset prices." ? -- but actually the percentage of declining houshold _disposable_ income has fueled those rises in asset prices, leaving less disposable income as a percentage of _total_ houshold income.
Your GDP chart's sourced from a lack of perspective. What about GDP per capita ? -- which has been rising since 1998. The commodities boom, and TWI (trade weighted index (terms of trade)) has driven economic production. What about the income increase that comes from increased production ? ie. GDP per capita has risen $7k, but income generated by that production is up $10k leaving $3k for households to shift into debt repayments.
Income is in a downtrend from what levels ? -- 8% pa (!). What's that relative to say a 5 year average ?
How much of household debt is tied to bad mortages or over capitalisation ? "Household assets" aren't restricted to property. They include shares and businesses. So of course people aren't saving. They're investing their money.
The RBA has indicated that the impact of lower housing affordability is overrated. The scare campaign however is led by Naomi Robson on Today Tonight, because apparently people can do much better learning how to save 10c per week on groceries by reducing their ply toilet paper by watching the show.
The only bubble I see is in Perth. And that's due to mining. And what proportion are miners -- only 5% of the labour force.
You people are all crazy if you think the ASX will fall 1000 pts.
(20min delay)