Piedmont Lithium has developed a multi faceted diversified lithium portfolio that places the company in a unique position as the world transitions to a lower emission economy
As Simon Moores from Benchmark touched on last month, if players in the EV Space are serious about their EV ambitions they need to own the mines or part of the mines, not just a piece of paper
Piedmont today comprises the following:
1) The 100% Owned Flagship Fully Integrated Mining Project - Carolina Lithium Project that will produce 30Ktpa of Lithium Hydroxide
2) 2 x Ownership stakes in Lithium Mines (A 25% Ownership of Sayona Quebec + a 50% earn-in ownership in Atlantic Lithium)
3) They are the #1 Shareholder of Sayona Mining (ASX:SYA at ~15%) and the #2 Shareholder of Atlantic Lithium (AIM:ALL at ~10%)
4) Developing a 2nd Standalone 30Ktpa Hydroxide Conversion Plant in the USA (60Ktpa Total)
5) They have Binding Offtake Agreements with both Sayona Quebec (For 113Ktpa or 50% of Production) and 50% of Atlantic Lithium's future Production
How to Value a Diversified Business like Piedmont ?
Analysing the 5 aspects mentioned above of Piedmonts Business Model, I applied the following assumptions:
- SC6 at $1,600/t and LiOH at $25,000/t
- Atlantic Lithium to model a 40% increase to its Ore Reserves from the 2021 PEA (This will likely increase in the DFS)
- Sayona Quebec to Operate at a 200Ktpa Steady Run Rate (113Ktpa to be sold to Piedmont and remainder 87Ktpa to be sold at Market Rates)
All Values are presented in US Dollars that generates:
- Annual EBITDA of $1.14 Billion
- A NPV8 Post-Tax of $6.77 Billion
- Current Shareholding TODAY in Sayona + Atlantic equates to $241.7 Million
Applying the consistent assumption of Spodumene Concentrate at US$1,600/t and Lithium Hydroxide at US$25,000/t results in a solid set of financials for Keith and Co to aspire towards, what is incredibly important is for the company to enter production as soon as reasonably practical to take advantage of current lithium prices that are 3-4 times higher than what I have modelled above
I do believe that Piedmont Lithium is one of the most undervalued Lithium Players tradable on the ASX today that is 1) A near term producer & 2) Has feasibility studies completed on each of its assets
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