Pillar 1 - FTO (new thread), page-365

That's not the correct approach because many of the old drugs it would replace in Chemotherapuetic settings are largely off or going off-patent (and hence very cheap). When drugs go off-patent generics start appearing and this drives down the pricing of the old drugs.

Drug pricing of new drugs is driven by what insurers or "payers" as they seem to be called in the US will pay. This is associated with life insurance and the concept or metrics of the cost of 1 year of human life.

For new drugs to be approved, they need to be better than current standard of care. The big niche for Bisantrene is the much improved heart safety compared to current standard of care. Insurers will pay for improvement in patient outcomes as it saves them money. Imagine the cost to an insurer of someone having years of treatment for heart problems because they were treated with one of the old chemo drugs in their 20s or 30s.

One of the challenges is finding accurate data for drug pricing and all the assumptions that go into market share. That's why I have shifted to an NPV model driven by extrapolation of analyst peak sales estimates for peer drugs for similar indications.

The NPV analysis I have done is a sum of the parts analysis - each Pillar is individually valued.