Pillar 1 - FTO (new thread), page-6

The simple logic I use for revenue potential for Pillar 1 - FTO is estimated 2026 sales for Keytruda.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/special-report/top-20-drugs-by-global-sales-2019-keytruda



Reasoning for this is that there is strong evidence that an FTO inhibitor can make PD-1 inhibitors work better. That's been shown for melanoma:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10669-0

So the thinking is that Bisantrene sales as an FTO inhibitor could scale very, very quickly if it is used alongside the block-buster PD-1 Inhibitors (to make them work better), which are currently Keytruda and Opdivio. Although Bisantrene as an agent targeting FTO could have significant potential beyond just in combination with the PD-1 Inhibitors. The PD-1 association just means that the major players, Merck and BMS will be very interested in how Bisantrene performs if it makes their drugs work better.

Below is my database of 2019 revenues, revenue growth and forecast 2026 revenues of the major Checkpoint Inhibitors.



Source links:

1. https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/yervoy-and-opdivo-combo-cancer/
2. https://bristolmyers2016ir.q4web.co...-Year-Financial-Results-for-2019/default.aspx
3. https://www.fiercepharma.com/special-report/keytruda-top-20-drugs-by-sales-increase-2020
4. https://www.roche.com/dam/jcr:bcfdc.../en/20200130-MR-Full-Year-Results-2019_en.pdf
5. https://www.thepharmaletter.com/article/asco-2020-bavencio-s-big-day-in-bladder-cancer
6. https://www.fiercepharma.com/special-report/astrazeneca-top-20-pharma-companies-by-2019-revenue
7. https://www.fiercepharma.com/special-report/yervoy-bristol-myers-squibb
8. https://www.fiercepharma.com/special-report/3-opdivo
9. https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2015-Financial-Results
10. https://www.fiercepharma.com/special-report/imbruvica-top-10-drugs-by-sales-increase-2020
11. https://www.biospace.com/article/re...nancial-results-and-provides-business-updates
12. https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/full?dockey=1323-14423289-6MRA8F7S9QJM82EN1P0DAJKVRE

So this is my estimate of revenue potential for each of the 3 pillars (in left column), alongside the current top-selling PD-1 inhibitors. Pillar 1 - FTO at future sales equivalent to Keytruda around USD $24B, Pillar 2 - Breast Cancer at USD $14B and Pillar 3 (AML / Ovarian) at USD $4.2B.

(my latest revenue model for the 3 pillars is here - https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/49653592/single )

So you can see the scale of the revenue potential for Bisantrene alongside two of the top-selling cancer drugs.




Looking further at Keytruda and Opdivio, since these are generic cancer killers approved based on a genetic profile and not a disease location, the revenue can scale very quickly ... and there is significant growth still to come. FTO puts Bisantrene in this same class.

Keytruda - over 1000 active, enrolling by invitation or recruiting clinical trials at the time of posting.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/resu...rs=d&age_v=&gndr=&type=&rslt=

Opdivo - almost 1,000
active, enrolling by invitation or recruiting clinical trials at the time of posting.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/resu...rs=d&age_v=&gndr=&type=&rslt=