I decided to put a few of my numbers together into the one spreadsheet to then look at sharing on here.
I don't have the skills of
@wombat777 or
@Mason14 so please don't heckle me too much for how this looks.
Originally I planned on doing up a report similar to MST with history of Bisantrene and RAC and each Pillar, however Mason has been covering that extremely well so I didn't want to embarrass myself.
With the below, as everyone states - this is not advice.. This is simply just a mug on an anonymous share trading forum sharing some calcs put together in excel.
I have added the links where I gathered some stats from below, but please note there are a lot of guestimates and assumptions used. Please also note that my number of cases seem to be less than what both Wombat and Mason found as I'm really only looking at US, so these numbers could be considered conservative.
And finally, this is just one scenario where the value is
only based on success of Pillar 3 - It
does not include the possibility of success in Pillar 2 or 3. This is what I consider the base value and what I would like the share price to reach before worrying too much about the others...
Here are a few of my key assumptions:
- Capital Raise in April 2021 of 15m shares at $3 each. (conservative)
- Cost of EM AML trial in Aust, Europe and US - $25m (based off MST report) - 30% of which will be completed in Aust
- Cost of Breast Cancer POC - $5m in Aust
- Cost of Pillar 1 POC - $5m in Aust
- EM AML trial to take 2 years commencing in 21/22 FY and costs spread over two financial years
- Breast Cancer and Pillar 1 commencing in 21/22 FY and costs incurred in one financial year
- Once AML is approved through FDA, Bisantrene is used off-label for Ovarian Cancer
- PRV is received and retained.
- I used the half yearly report for now (based on 6 mthly number), but other columns are full financial years.
Unconventional valuation method:
- I am giving Pillar 3 a 100% clinical and commercial probability.
- I am giving Pillar 1 and 2 0% clinical and commercial probability (this is to highlight value of Pillar 3 alone - this is just a scenario - I am not sharing other scenarios)
- Due to 100% probability of Pillar 3 value in FY 24, I have worked backwards to a NPV and discounted for potential left of field scenarios that may derail the success - ie, legal battles, management change, etc. This discount reduces as you get closer to FY 24. I also used a very very simplistic NPV formula for the financial years. Due to it only being a short period it's not that drastic.
- I use forward looking financial statements to work out EPS then use PE ratio to work out Share Price, and add that value to the Book Value Per Share to work out fair value.
(Fingers crossed this copies over ok...)
Profit and Loss -
Balance Sheet -
Treatment cases -
Assumptions-
Profit margin is 49% as per 304B Hospital article
Avg cost per treatment was provided to us on HC
Number of Cases is US.https://haematologica.org/article/view/9430#:~:text=So%20far%2C%20EM%20AML%20prevalence,factor%20in%20patients%20with%20AML.
https://www.ajmc.com/view/average-profit-margin-on-oncology-drugs-for-340b-hospitals-nears-50https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/ovary.htmlFair Value
PE ratio for Pharma - 85 currently, however 24 has been as it was the PE ratio in 2015 for Drug sector.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1028311/price-earnings-in-the-health-and-pharmaceuticals-sector-in-europe/#:~:text=The%20trailing%20P%2FE%20for,one%20dollar%20made%20through%20earnings.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/033015/what-average-pricetoearnings-ratio-drugs-sector.aspIMO, DYOR, etc, etc
