the drilling program is a formality. this is not like looking for gold or copper. the entire area in EL5294 is made of CHTD suitable brown coal - if you have any doubt have a look at the photos of the brown coal walls at Maddingley posted by MNM today, and 11/1/11. those kind of seams don't just switch off at the perimeter of the Maddingley pit.
It seems very very likely that EL5294 will be proven to contain 2 billion tonnes+ of lignite, with a value after CHTD treatment equal to approx 1 billion tonnes of thermal grade coal.
thermal coal is selling for $100p/mt + at the moment, and looks set to go higher over the next 5 years due to massive Indian and Chinese demand. the in ground value of the BM resource (now it has been proven to be amenable to conversion by CHTD) is therefore $100 billion+. MNM have 50% of this resource's value under the terms of the exergen JV.
Vertigo's estimated $55 m/tpa costs at BM = an MNM profit potential from 2015-2045 of $360 million pa for this 50% share based on a 12m/tpa plant being built at BM, and Tata taking 8m/tpa under an offtake deal. if coal prices go up as anticipated by 2015 you can probably increase his estimate to half a billion dollar pa profit potential on the BM project for MNM. For 30 years...
what is the MNM MC again?
DYOR
MNM Price at posting:
16.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held