Love your work 2ic.
Not afraid to wear your heart on your sleeve even if analysis is unfavorable.
Can't say I always follow your maths, but appreciate the level of knowledge and detail you share on here.
From my basic understanding of your posts and the release, it appears:
- CAPEX will be 90-100m lower thanks to the absence of the roast.
-The zircon output will be ramped leading to a similar revenue figure even without the ilmenite.
- The OPEX will likely be lower as they won't have to truck gas for hundreds of km for the roasting step (which is the most expensive part of the project)
Which brings us to an NPV of circa $1b using your guesstimates for unrefined ilmenite offtake - which has been signed for the first 7 years.
Can feel sentiment turning, but there's not many shares for sale at the moment.
Might be one of those rare occasions where the instos have sold out and the little guys get the nibbly profits on the way up.
I've seen enough to tentatively dip my toe in again and average down - really in the red, so I'd be extremely happy if management (read suitors in the data room) have managed to tweak this and pull one out of the fire.
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