Okay. Read it. Really good read that. Cudos to whoever wrote it they provided great information. I think I understand this business well. First read said this is terrific, I get this i like this
Then I got to the financials. FY15 Rev of $6m and FY18 projected of $10.4m (USD). My concern here is that this is a mature, estalished company, and they aren't growing fast at all. Suggesting they're reached a peak...or that they will need to spend $ to grow. Like those HiPages sites where they make $50m revenue but spent $25m on adwords to buy the traffic. The day they stop spending they die
So on target for another loss of $5m this year
So in that $10.4m sampling revenue has not gone up at all in that time., The kicker came from Audience monetisation which went from $1m in FY15 to $1.8m in FY17 then forecast at $4.6m in FY18, yeah I'd like to know more about that as also why # of sample distributed fell i FY17 but rose so much in FY18
There are a lot of ProForma 2017 numbers on page 58 and 59, not sure about that
Of the $9.3m expenses in FY18 over $5.3m in employment costs. They are only spending $1m on marketing. This is massively insignificant and salaries ridiculously inflated for this company and that revenue. Take Options and Performance shares instead and put yourselves on the table properly back your own product
My take: I like the idea, I like to concept, they are established, but revenue growth is flat and I don't know how rubbery it really is.
An IPO leaving not much in the bank means they are unable to pay enough to get meaningful customer acquisition to see if growth and take up has been constrained by not enough budget. This is the USA and the $2m they will have to throw at it is not enough
A $60m IPO with 83% of shares held by founders means they value this at what....$45m today. Make of that what you will but these ones normally go to 50-60% of their IPO price don't they?
I don't do predictions anymore, I get them wrong. I said no to afterpay and look at that, and so many of these Marketplace sh!tshows and Tinybeans type stocks are valued over $100m with stuff all revenue and continued losses. So this could be a unicorn once it starts monetising its data - are the samples just a loss leader to build data to sell back to?
I just can't help but wonder why this - as a USA company and USA play- is chasing nickles and dimes here in Australia. No one in the USA would give you $5m for 15% plus decent runway for marketing?
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Okay. Read it. Really good read that. Cudos to whoever wrote it...
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