Here are some very rough numbers. Working on a 66% probability of success and a value of $7.3bn per indication. That $14.5bn for the first three that have passed PH2. Assuming Angelmans is success ful. Thats coming of Reatas Valuation that Jon flagged.
I really can’t find and numbers for successful animal trials. But being a platform pipeline, with stellar animal results so far , let’s bump it up from 10% yo 20%. Because the animal models are so good and the mechanisms of action is so well understood that might even be a little low. Assuming 5 indications which is half of Jon’s less than 10 comments. Which I believe will be on the low side. After 4 positive hits last round and considering our fat bank account why wouldn’t he double down this time to 8.
But 5 X $7.3bn X 10% =$3.65bn. Or 20% =$7.3bn.
Let’s not forget to add in $4bn for NNZ2486 licensed to ACAD. If that equals 5 x royalties at peak sales. Not an exact science but it’s a start.
That totals $26.8Bn USD. Or $40.2Bn AUD.
That gives $326 per share. I wonder the CEO and BOD have very happy relaxed grins. Even if my calculations are halved we still get $163 per share.
I realise that sounds crazy and am more than happy to hear different valuations. It’s just that there has never been a drug like this before. Not that I’ve heard of,
Here is some reading that will help understand just how valuable NEU’ pipeline has become.
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