I think the obvious outcome will be a merger between Neuren & Acadia. This removes the issues with the agreement, gives Acadia unrestricted access to NNZ-2591 upside, gives Neuren access to Acadia's significant US staff & experience launching and supporting a neurodevelopment disorder, and gives a potential acquirer a single uncomplicated target.
The easiest would be 50/50 - giving both parties equal seats at the table. 5 years ago that would have been hard to imagine, but today the market caps of Neuren and Acadia are not far off each other.
For all the reasons people have listed I think time is on Neuren's side. The further Neuren progresses the stronger their position negotiating with Acadia. Acadia's stuck in a holding pattern. With NUPLAZID a one-trick-pony their best bet lies with NNZ-2591. But anything they do now (Ph 3 trials in Retts & Fragile-X) might strengthen Neuren's position more than their own.
Acadia's pursuit of a separate PWS drug always seemed like a negotiating ploy to me.
Neuren may wait until the last minute to do a merger on the most favourable terms possible. Certainly someone's done us a big favour pushing Acadia's share price to recent lows. Wonder who's now pushing Neuren's price down? Perhaps silazze is right
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