KJT - this is absolutely fantastic and I cannot thank you enough for sharing this.
Even though I bang on and on about $15b USD ($22.5b AUD) being the bare minimum we should accept today in any TO scenario, I still gasp at the numbers you have put forward. What is crazy to me is that I still gasp at the numbers even after coming up with very similar numbers myself. I am nowhere near as sophisticated and basically use fingers to count but came to $410 per share as a reasonable TO valuation ($36b USD / $54b AUD).
I never post that figure, instead choose to share my $15b USD theory because I don't want to be laughed at but reading your post was a really, really interesting exercise in comparison to other companies.
I know people may roll their eyes but if I look at 3 other Australian pharma/bio companies as a comparison, it does provide some real food for thought.
In your analysis, you note that peak sales (which I know is different to ongoing revenue) is $20b USD / $20b AUD under the conservative model, ranging up to $45b USD / $90b AUD for the optimistic model.
Again, I appreciate that ongoing revenue and peak sales are not the same but given the pipeline that 2591 has with all the indications, not to mention Daybue, I find it hard to see how we could not one day be valued in a similar league to CSL, albeit with a much smaller SOI. It is also really interesting to see how low our PE is in comparison with other companies. PME have 60% of our revenue and less than half our net income, yet their PE and SP are significantly greater than ours
I feel like there is a significant value misalignment and am coming around to the conclusion that if Daybue sales get back on track and if we could progress one indication to market ourselves (say PMS), then a SP of $300 is a walk in the park. My $410 number is easily in play and some of the figures that you posted, namely $510 for the optimistic DCF and $760 for the optimistic Peak Sales are not beyond the realms of possibility. In fact they would move from possible to probable in my view.
This will take a few years to materialise of course but instructive nonetheless.
(20min delay)