NEU (ASX) Pipeline-in-a-drug

Originally posted by baldwidx ↑

I almost can’t believe I am going to say this, but after properly reading the contract, I think I would be happy with $50 TO offer.

It saddens me to agree with you and frustrates me in equal measure to have not done my homework properly.I know I have agreed with you on this subject previously but I did not read the contract thoroughly and relied on an erroneous assumption that Neuren would do the right thing and sort this restriction out – in hindsight it was blind hope more than anything and an unwillingness to let negative news temper my excitement that I am on a winning lottery ticket. A real lesson learnt!

It has caused me to seriously consider my position and whether I continue to hold even though I regularly post about a $15b USD sale.

Frustratingly, it is crystal clear that Neuren can't do anything with 2591 in the Initial Territory (North America) unless Acadia agree to it – and they wont, I would be my last dollar on that. Setting aside fiduciary obligations, they didn’t when negotiating for ROW rights. We were unable to leverage that inflection point to unlock our most valuable asset and remove the shackles, so despite the references to “good faith”, they are still not being commercially naïve.

We basically have no rights to our most valuable asset in the most valuable territory. Acadia have them by default because they can either prevent us from exercising them or extort Neuren for a huge cut of the pie to obtain their approval.Which leads me to five possible conclusions, although there are more that are rattling around my brain.

1. Merger - Pains me to say that a Merger is possibly the best outcome for holders here so that we can realise full value for our pipeline, even though the value of our holdings will be diluted.

2. Reciprocal arrangement – We pay Acadia sales fees on similar terms to the licence agreement they paid to us for Trofinetide so they get an ongoing cut of the pie for unlimited use of 2591 in North America.

3. We licence 2591 to a European/Asian Pharma at the discount you rightly identified for ROW rights and work out a convoluted process with Acadia to bring 2591 to market in the USA.

4. Big Pharma takes both us and Acadia out at the same time.

5. Nothing happens, we only progress 2591 in the 4 indications in the USA and don’t get taken over cause no Pharma would want that level of complication and Acadia cant afford us and we spend the rest of our lives crying because Neuren, under former management, BOTTLED IT and MASSIVELY dropped the ball on this, snookering themselves and giving up control to possibly one of the most valuable pipeline drugs in recent memory.

I find all of this really hard to reconcile cause the data points are confusing. Comments of JP being relaxed at the AGM now seem comical to me. If I had this absurd contractual restraint hanging over my head, I wouldn’t sleep. Which makes me think that possibly there is something afoot that gives them comfort that this will all end well or he is just the best poker player ever.

It makes me think about Lang Walker selling and even Trevor Scott selling a boatload of shares last year, which despite comments at the time, seems to be a sign that this wont be wrapped up anytime soon and you might as well enjoy the money you have while you can.

I look at supressed SP and “temporary cancellation” of the PW trial and ask whether they are purposeful and a sign of a done deal, whether that is a merger with Acadia or a BP swallowing us both.But then why go through the charade of meeting with the FDA for P3 trial designs. I don’t get it.

I am not enjoying today and it has nothing to do with the SP.

Expand

Baldwyx, I suggest getting clear verification from the CEO about these contacts having restricted clauses.

I have had substantial litigation around commercial contracts in a business deal. All I can say is this area gets very complex .

I really doubt that ACAD has full control over North America with regards to blocking 2591z. Treagus and Pilcher were both very much aware that 2591 would be the jewel in the crown.

Neither of them would have permitted ACAD to effectively control 2591.

I don’t see ACAD blocking the first 4 indications. That should tell us something,

I’d suggest any concerned shareholders should shoot an email to Jon for clarification. He would undoubtedly not want all this confusion and speculation going on whilst he’s out selling the NEU story.

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(20min delay)
Last $13.31		Change 0.770(6.14%)		Mkt cap ! $1.655B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$12.96	$14.00	$12.91	$19.76M	1.453M

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