pi's resource expectations?

You will be aware that I am very positive on the FTEs longer term prospects believing the shares are good value at current levels (9.5p).

What does concern me over the short term is investors impatience and unrealitic expecations which could hit the shares over the very short term. We know that FTE has some great prospects and 2010 is likely to be a pivotal and exciting year for the company but some peoples expectations that 40-50mlb is 'highly likely' to be in place before the end of Q2 therefore trigging potentially lucrative JV talks with Aveva needs to be tempered (imho).

We are all awaiting the delayed assay results/density revision figures with baited breath. My fear is that if expectations are way to high the share price may fall back on disappointment if big 'lb or ppm figures' are not confirmed in the next few weeks. Patience is definately going to be a virtue with this share particularly given the shoody service of ALS Chemex the current testing lab!!

I think this is why management have been careful not to overhype the companies prospects and manage expecations in recent activity statements and have tried to both keep us fully informed and provide us with an events timetable. Drilling is clearly advancing at a speedy pace & management appear to be quitely confident. However I would be interested to know what peoples expections currently are on the following timescales:

End of Q1:
End of Q2:
'Blue Sky' End of 2010:

My Expectations:

Bir En Nar:
Although management have stated in investor presenations that Bir En Nar will eventually prove to be a 25mlb resource, I think it will take most of 2010 to firm up these figures. I dont believe we will come anywhere close to this figure when an initial Jorc figure is released. Matrix incidently believe that the ultimate potential may well be 60mlbs from Bir En Nar AND SURROUNDING PROJECTS.

Personally Im looking for an initial resource declaration of 7-10mlb which will hopefully be revised upwards during 2010 on upward density revisions / additional drilling.

End of Q1: 7-10mlbs
End of Q2: 10-13mlb
'Blue Sky' End of 2010: 15mlb

Firwana:
Im also hopeful that the additonal samples sent to the labs will see the density calculation revised upwards. I looking for 2.5 to 3m/t which will see the initial Jorc increased from 11.6mlbs to 13-15mlbs. I an hopeful that we could well see 20mlbs by June (matrix think this a virtual certainty) and Firwana could ultimately host as much as 40mlbs once all drilling is completed.

End of Q1: 13-15mlbs
End of Q2: 20mlb
'Blue Sky' End of 2010: 25mlb

Bir Mogehien, Leg Beji, Beso, Anomoly 68 etc
(Bohodoo,Sesse - I have igonred the Guinea assets I expect management will concentrate on the Mauratania prospects)

This is where it becomes more difficult as we are yet to complete drilling at the most promising projects

End of Q1: 0mlbs
End of Q2: 15mlb
'Blue Sky' End of 2010: 25mlb

In summary, my expectations of total Jorc across all prospects (an assuming no major lab delays are):

End of Q1: 20-25mlbs
End of Q2: 33-40mlb
'Blue Sky' End of 2010: 50mlb+

Finally a few thoughts on the June Aveva JV deadline. I think this date is fairly flexible. Management are believed to be in very close contact with Areva management and Aveva have invested a lot of man power and resources to help FTE on their way. Aveva are hardly likely to walk away if FTE take a little longer to deliver paticularly if its due to poor weather conditions, chronic lab delays etc.

Im very interested to gauge your expectations / hear your thoughts

D