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Pitt St Research Report: MEB - 5c base case to 8c Bull case

  1. 550 Posts.
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    Thanks to @Parimal701 for sharing the report.
    (https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5af533a312b13fb602fe7d7b/t/60b74453a8d3156764e72168/1622623322849/Medibio+initiation+report+3+June+2021.pdf)

    I've had a read and I think page 5 is probably the best summary for anyone new to the stock.
    I'm aware of most of this stuff as I've been holding the stock and the options for many years.

    Below is taken from the report and parts that are bold have been highlighted from my end.

    Ten reasons to look at Medibio

    1) Medibio has developed a novel, data-driven solution to objectively
    screen for mental health disorders. Besides being a non-intrusive
    technology, Medibio’s solution is highly reliable and cost-effective, and
    can be easily administered to patients by primary care personnel.

    2) Medibio’s unique sleep-based heart rate technology is patent-protected
    and based on over 20 years of research
    on the correlation between
    mental health and the patients’ heart rate.

    3) Medibio has research partnerships with renowned global universities,
    including Johns Hopkins University and the University of Ottawa
    , which
    have, through several pilots and clinical studies, aided in the
    corroboration of its technology.

    4) Barriers to entry. Besides patent protection, Medibio’s vast database of
    electrocardiogram data, along with corresponding clinical psychiatric
    diagnoses that has over many years contributed to its intellectual
    knowhow, poses a significant entry barrier for new entrants.

    5) The company has developed multiple offerings with different target
    markets and commercialisation routes in mind. Medibio plans to offer
    four distinct solutions across its regulated and unregulated business units,
    and this will potentially allow the company to benefit from diversified
    revenue streams.


    6) Mental health issues are on the rise, with huge costs to the global
    economy to the tune of US$1tn annually
    . Over 350 million people suffer
    from depression in the US and Europe alone and this excludes people
    suffering from high anxiety levels. The key challenge with current
    diagnostic systems is that they lack objective measurement and are time consuming. This is where Medibio’s solutions can help by providing early
    and clear screening, which can lead to effective treatment and lower
    costs to the economy and society.

    7) The company has received CE Mark approval for its solutions in the
    regulated business segment. The CE Mark approval has significant
    revenue implications for the company as it allows Medibio to
    commercialise MEBsleep across the European Economic Community
    .
    Additionally, Medibio is also currently exploring opportunities to sell
    MEBsleep into the large US sleep research market
    .

    8) Medibio’s corporate mental well-being app, ilumen, continues to gain
    strong traction among employers
    , which augurs well for the company in
    its early-revenue-generation stage. This target market is being buoyed by
    structural tailwinds, including the growing acceptance of mental health
    issues by employers and the emphasis by governments to create mentally
    healthy workplaces. Further, COVID-19 has played a significant role in
    making the mental well-being of employees one of the top priorities of
    corporates
    . We believe that with the recent blockbuster Compass Group
    deal for ilumen, Medibio will continue to focus on global organisations
    and leverage the structural tailwind
    s.

    9) The current leadership team of Medibio, including the Managing Director
    (Claude Solitario) and Chief Medical Officer (Dr. Archie Defillo), possesses
    significant experience in the fields of healthcare technology and mental
    wellness
    , which is a big positive for the company in its commercialisation
    journey across various solutions. Senior Vice President, Jennifer Solitario,
    is critical in driving the global commercial success of ilumen and very well qualified to be leading the charge.
    Medibio Ltd
    Readers should be aware that Pitt Street Research Pty Ltd has been engaged and paid by the company covered in this report for ongoing
    research coverage. Please refer to the final page of this report for the General Advice Warning, disclaimer and full disclosures.
    6

    10) We believe Medibio should be valued higher than its current market
    value. Our intrinsic value for Medibio comes out to be A$0.05 per share
    in the base case and A$0.08 per share in the bull case.
    We believe rerating will be driven by three key catalysts: 1) further traction and revenue
    generation for ilumen, 2) regulatory approvals for MEBsleep and MEB001 solutions in its regulatory business unit and 3) initial revenues from
    Consumer App.

 
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