pivotal week for markets, page-6

The recent $1330 high was eclipsed with ease last night with gold up over 1%, currently trading $1337. Yesterday I mentioned $1330 was to be broken this week, however even I was surprised it was surpassed on its first attempt. A report out of Bank of America (BOA) talked about the flow of buyers & sellers had flipped from earlier in this gold rally. Previously we saw Asia buying & the West selling overnight. Since gold & equities have been running together for the last three weeks or so, the opposite has been true, and there lies the conundrum. Equities & gold do not generally run in the same direction for long. The last time this occurred for any sustainable period was before the credit crunch, and we all know what happened there. Overnight the S&P managed to just break through the 1850 record highs & NASDAQ to 14 year highs. So what is fuelling this optimism? The last couple of weeks it was bad weather impacting the data, hence the weak numbers had been dismissed. Last night it was talk of M&A activity. Reports I have read say something similar to the following. Well if there is M&A activity then perhaps the market isn't overvalued? The market is looking for re-assurance, never a good sign. Sure there could be M&A activity & I am sure other companies will be swallowed at record valuations, because that has never happened before... What this reminds me of, is the gold market in 2009/10, when gold producers wanted to expand no matter what the cost. Bigger was better & all discipline went out the window. Greed & ego will do that & we are again seeing this side of human nature reflected in the US equity markets. Sure they may go higher, fuelled by what I just described. However it will come unstuck imo & without any doubt in my mind. If anyone thinks that equity markets should be at record levels, considering the on-going economic turmoil around the globe & massive sovereign debt of the West & Japan, they need to get their head read. Obviously there is some agreement with this argument, as stated early in the piece, gold is being bought overnight by the West (paper). What this tells me is the smart money is picking gold to keep going & break free of the equity markets. It is widely reported that Soros allegedly has taken a massive short position on the US equity markets & some time ago did the opposite in gold miners. We all know how the latter position must be doing! As I said the smart money... Happy trading. Daytr