The company store roll-out will deliver Revenue, EBITDA and FCF...

The company store roll-out will deliver Revenue, EBITDA and FCF growth. A typical site will have EBITDA margins of 18%. Clearly these margins are getting squeezed at the moment with elevated COGS, labor and a possible reduction of foot traffic. Management and more importantly RFG development team are aware of this. They will have an IRR threshold that a new company store must meet prior to rolling out. The capital controls are far different now than what they were. Lets assume they are wrong with their assumption of store sales post roll-out. For the store to be loss making from a CF perspective they would need revenue to drop 18% - 20% which is typically the EBITDA margin for these company run stores. I think this is unlikely given the improved menus and marketing strategies. Lastly they have largely excited the poor performing involuntary company stores. Important to also note that many F&B franchised businesses have performed well through the cycle. I am also taking a contrarian view that AUS will not enter a recession. Discretionary spending will revert back to

I don't have a connection to the company nor do I have any inside information. I am judging this off independent franchisee reports, market insights on franchisee and discussions with RFG site owners. Simply pick up the phone and ask IR for RFG they will be able to tell you this. With respect to franchisee growth. RFG receives a cash down-payment and an ongoing annuity from their franchisees. Many of these immigrants are leveraging the family bank and paying all equity. Stepping through the arduous process of bank finance.

Castle Point has had a shocking year and needed to realise a profit. Note they still have a meaningful stake in the company. I don't have a view on TIGA other than he focuses on turnarounds which is largely completed. I am unsure when he excited. The sell down has likely come from institutional investors triggering stop losses post cap raise. This trend was then worsened by mum and dad investors. Its likely the invested assuming the upward trend would continue then exciting on fear as they had no logic behind their investment decision.

You may be right and I may be wrong. Personally I think the odds are in my favor. Clearly the market doesn't agree. Not much has go right here and you've doubled your money on multiple expansion. An upgrades and confirmation of FY24 this will sky rocket.