if sp is around 1.8c when the offer closes it will be heavily oversubscribed - in that case overflow may not be coming our way.... if sp is around 1.5c then latecomers will not apply and hope to get under 1.4 (but they won't get free oppies)...in that case you will get a lot of the overflow for sure
so it all comes down the price in the next few days
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