placement, page-64

Lol

You should read up on decline curves for a better understanding about them and how a decline exponent or b factor is established to calculate a wells EUR, which is then used to calculate field reserves. Reserve estimates obtained by this method are the most accurate of all methods.

On the other hand, estimates currently employed by MAD are - volumetric, analogy and historical production, methods. I'm not sure if you know much about reserves estimation but these methods are scant at best, and rely heavily on the recovery factor input in the asseres models, which currently they are using a total recovery factor of OIP of %49 which is very high, and this would obviously inflate there reserves estimates.

A couple of things to take into account -

- In the early stages of development, reserves estimates are restricted to the analogy and volumetric calculations. The analogy method is applied by comparing factors for the analogous and current fields or wells.

- The volumetric method, on the other hand, entails determining the areal extent of the reservoir, the rock pore volume, and the fluid content within the pore volume. This provides an estimate of the amount of hydrocarbons-in-place. The ultimate recovery, then, can be estimated by using an appropriate recovery factor. Each of the factors used in the calculation above have inherent uncertainties that, when combined, cause significant uncertainties in the reserves estimate.

- Estimates obtained from volumetric analysis on complex structures such as the Blue Ridge Salt Dome are generally not considered to have a high degree of accuracy. Further, the structural complexity of the Blue Ridge Salt Dome means that it is not possible to estimate reserves through material balance analysis. Therefore, there is an increased risk that the estimation of reserves from Maverick’s acreage on the Blue Ridge Dome has a low degree of accuracy.

Now ciggys you mentioned - "There is a PSI test that is conducted to establish the decline rate of a chocked well." not sure why you would mention this in regards to MAD as they do not use material balance analysis to determine the decline and in turn reserves.

I think some more research needs to be conducted by you to better understand MAD's reserves, and reserve estimating techniques and there various degrees of accuracy.