Given how heavilly over subscribed I anticipate that the...

Given how heavilly over subscribed I anticipate that the placement will be, I would be absolutely gobsmacked if the SP fell below the placement price, (I think there have been enough comments suggesting it is 95 cents, so I think we can toss out the 90 cents quoted by the AFR)

A lot will depend on how the placement is being conducted. I think it's fair to say that most of it is going to go to Patersons clients and institutions, so it's just a case now of whether smaller shareholders will have the chance to participate. If they do, to what extent? A 1/20 rights issue perhaps?? Or even a share purchase plan? More importantly, do you have to be on the books NOW to be eligible, or will there be a chance to jump on when they come back to be eligible for whatever they offer shareholders (If in fact they offer anything) We no doubt have to wait until Friday, but these are the questions that need to be answered before we can start to guess the opening share price when they come back on.

If there is no opportunity for shareholders and the placement is entirely institutional, then I would anticipate between 95 and 1.05. If there is something in it for shareholders, and people have the chance to jump on before the books are closed, then it could be a fair bit higher than that (with the expectation that it will fall back once the books are closed).

Just my 2 cents worth.