plan vs actual , page-44

" I don't think people are thinking about a 1% chance of a dud"
williamsg....Yes I know people are not expecting anything less than another successful well. And with a 99% success rate average for the PB you would be forgiven for having that high level of expectation that well #2 will be one of the 99%ers.

BUT it could be the 1% dud. Just keep our feet on the ground and be prepared for that possibility. It is no use getting all pumped up and expecting the sp to mushroom when in fact a dud result for well #2 would be very deflating.

And even if it is a "successful" well (one of the 99%ers) I doubt that it will match the characteristics of well #1.
If GGP was surprised by the result from well #1 the I think that it is likely to the exception rather than the rule.

So let's just keep our expectations low and wait for the real results to be delivered. Then we can go wild if Well #2 delivers equal to Well #1.
Then that might indicate a very sweet spot in the PB. Very sweet indeed.