Anyone watching this stock closely may have detected a subtle...

Anyone watching this stock closely may have detected a subtle but significant change in sentiment recently.
A look through yesterday’s Annual Report and the WMRC minutes of meetings (http://www.wmrc.wa.gov.au/documents/) gives an indication as to why the SP has started to rise.
From the WMRC Minutes 5 June 2014:


From the WMRC Minutes 7 August 2014:


And from the WMRC Minutes 2 October 2014:



From the 2014 Annual Report released yesterday, we have the following:



I have taken this spread to be the first half of October and have assumed processed tonnage to be 40-45% for the second half of the month, giving a monthly average of 40%.
Putting all this together we get the following data:

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5
1	Ann Target	55,000
2	Mthly Rate	4583
3	Month	WMRC	City of Stirling	Tonnes	% of Target Rate
4	Oct-13	0	0	0	0.000%
5	Nov-13	21	0	21	0.458%
6	Dec-13	14	0	14	0.305%
7	Jan-14	56	0	56	1.222%
8	Feb-14	32	0	32	0.698%
9	Mar-14	87	0	87	1.898%
10	Apr-14	60	77	137	2.989%
11	May-14	?	?	148	3.229%
12	Jun-14	?	?	160	3.491%
13	Jul-14	?	?	176	3.840%
14	Aug-14	?	?	180	3.927%
15	Sep-14	?	?	969	21.132%
16	Oct-14	?	?	1,833	40.000%

Please note in lieu of available data, the value for May 2014 has been extrapolated. The value for Sep 2014 is pro-rata against the 678 tonnes for the first 3 weeks as stated (i.e. 678tonnes/21days*30days)

In graphical form the trend is clear, showing processed tonnage up 854% since August:



This lends weight to the statements in the Annual Report from the Chairman and Managing Director:





“We are now working steadily towards an operational footing”. This is obviously a key milestone for the Project.

Cash is clearly the area of concern for AnaeCo however I believe that risk is mitigated by the following:

• history would suggest that Monadelphous will likely make more cash available as they readily have in the past. AnaeCo have already indicated they will qualify for a further R&D Tax Incentive refund this year. Hence I expect that Monadelphous will provide a similar advance as the one extended recently;
• Monadelphous have a vested interest in completion of the plant as soon as possible. As partner to the Contract, Monadelphous will want to see this transition to Operational status completed ASAP. Any cash flow issues for AnaeCo would impede this goal. Consequently, it is in their interest to support AnaeCo financially if required;
• WMRC have a vested interest in completion of the plant as soon as possible. They stand to profit from processing of other councils waste. The WMRC will want to see this transition to Operational status completed ASAP. Any cash flow issues for AnaeCo would impede this goal. Consequently, it is in their interest to support AnaeCo in whatever way they can to achieve this; and
• Being so close to Practical Completion presents a minimalised risk to any potential financier.

In summary, ANQ seems to be finally coming to fruition with plant issues solved and processing tonnage rapidly increasing. With 'friendly' a partner in Monadelphous any potential cash flow issues should be mitigated.

GLTAH