Thanks for that Shadowboxer. I've been doing a bit more...

Thanks for that Shadowboxer.

I've been doing a bit more investigation. My best guess is that there's more industrial action in store in South Africa. Plus, mining companies may be more inclined to shut down production than agree to wage rises given current low platinum prices. In short, the supply side sounded good from an investor's viewpoint (otherwise quite bad - people have been shot).

However, then I did a web search worded as follows:

"replace platinum" -"fuel cells"

The hits I got suggested that there's more than one material in the wings to replace platinum in the catalytic converters of diesel vehicles.

Palladium is one of those materials, so I'm considering its investment potential. However, palladium has already seen price appreciation, and in any case is less dependent on South Africa for supply, as you reported. Furthermore, there is research underway to replace palladium itself with cheaper materials in the catalytic converters of petrol-engined vehicles.

Of course, vehicle production has been impacted by the GFC. Opinion seems divided as to whether the worst of that is over, or yet to come.

Nothing's ever as straightforward as it seems at first.