playing defence, page-3

Meerkat - Slick Rick has made assumptions and an estimate. Problem is that although he understands how $2 plus can be arrived at you don't - he didn't detail it enough for you.

Here a suggestion - work backwards from his estimate first - lets see $2 would give a market cap of about $1.5 billion.

Now then - who else in this sector has such a cap? Answer - HDR. Then compare his assumptions on NEO with HDR assets, reserves and expected flow rates.

Do they compare based on his assumptions for NEO?

This way you are comparing what might be to something that is already there with such a market cap and then you can make a rough estimate of your own - ie if after you compare the 2 companies in this way the NEO turns out to be only a quarter of a Hardman then you have come up with a possible 50 cents for NEO - so slick rick is 300% off then. However, you then have an understanding of 'what might be' should any of his assumptions turn out to be true - ie 10 times current price.

I don't hold NEO and don't have any opinion on what is a possible market cap in the future - but I have done some stewing over such issues for NDO and came up with various estimates.

On the surface when I compare NEO with NDO - I see NEO currently being comparable to the NDO Pagasa Turbidites/Palawan Basin acerage asset (Nido call 'Value Add') - high risk / high reward. NEO is going for this up front, Nido has existing producing assets plus Galoc that are lower risk to focus on first and will get to the Pagasa later. When they do there will also be estimates like Slick Ricks floating around here for NDO too - if the resource is there in recoverable quantities and can be got out at good flow rates the market will buy with its ears pinned back - Hardman is proof of that.

You might want to keep an open mind and develop some rough ways to make your own valuations in advance as well as being extremely cautious as you rightly are - as it could be a non commercial find.

If there are COMMERCIAL finds for NEO and slick ricks assumptions turn out to be 300% off the mark then it is a possible 10 bagger from here anyway.