Great analysis. I'm a little concerned after reading about peak gaming. The thesis is: a) strong growth from mobile adoption and covid lockdowns is over b) TikTok and other short video platforms are taking users away from video games.
Another possible headwind for PYL is AI. At first glance AI should make game development faster and cheaper. But it does that for everyone. Microsoft's Muse makes it easier for studios like Netflix and WB to develop their own games, cutting out content creators like PLY. AI dev is a change that will erode the IP and skills of PLY, creating a more level playing field for new entrants.
Nevertheless, I feel that PLY is in a cyclical downturn and probably a bit undervalued. The catalysts, like MOUSE, are still a fair way off so I'd expect the price to languish for a while. And one round of success, one or two hits, is not necessarily repeatable - lots of risks in trying to model a NPV beyond that or calculate a terminal value for a hit-based stock.
PLY Price at posting:
20.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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