Goneflying.....at the highest level something is only worth what someone is pretty to pay for it. At the moment all g explorers are potential, there is no such thing as certainty so finance valuation theory is largely out the window.
The question is certainty around the variables at play. The more certain a variable the lower the risk and conversely the high the price (supply / demand theory).
Pure hypotehtical
If we assume Triton has locked in 300ktpa offtakes at say $1,000. Lets say cost of production, admin costs, royalties etc are $500, so there is a margin of $500pt. Assuming there in no debt this leaves a profit of (again assume a 30% tax rate to keep it simple) $100m pa. If this was a mature business (ie. its growth trajectory is relatively flat, which sould be the case in a miner with a capped production capacity), let's say a PE multiple of 8-10 is applicable, so you are in the ambit of a valuation of $800 - $1b. Assuming there is 500m shares on a fully diluted basis (which basically includes all ordinary shares + outstanding options) you get a Share Price in the order of $1.70 - $2.10. To re-iterate these numbers are purely hypothetical.
This is the simplest form of any valuation - a P/E or times multiple approach. It is a historic way of looking at things. Basically high growth business's trade at higher PE's because the market is expecting significant future growth, versus companies that have a relatively stable earnings base.
If you start looking at forward looking projections you start getting into the land of NPV where future cash flows are discounted to derive a Net Present Value. This is what you'll see in the various Analyst packs. This can get very complex so won't even try to explain.
Everything comes back to certainty though. How certain is the Finance, how certain are the offtakes, how certain is it that a company will get a mining licence.
TON Price at posting:
25.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
