your technical posts are always great quality and very relevant
A couple of things for your thoughts
CLSA - That was last Year 2011 - The world equity, debt and iron ore markets have moved significantly for the worse since then. I dont think you can refer back to reports, the game has changed significantly since then...
I have CLSA/Other research 2011 with Atlas BUY $4 now $1.70, FMG 8.20 now $4, BHP$50 now $32, Rio $90 Vale $30 etc..
I wouldnt imagine that SDL's share price would have held up in light of these performances...
Without Hanlong ever entering the equation and say no JV or finance to date we'd be trading at 15c now in this market...no doubt
I also note Hayden Bairstow Head of Commods at CLSA has downgreaded LT Iron Ore prices to $70 and has a SELL on Vale and Reduce on Rio... I do not think he has the same values on SDL anymore..
Whilst at lower Iron Ore prices SDL is still very profitable, as margins are reduced the shareprice has a negative multiplier affect.. eg FMG AGO...SDL's biggest risk is always getting the capital.
I think the offer by Hanlong is very fair and reasonable. Infact i think GJ may have got the timing perfect.
Do i think we may get a counter? Maybe, I hope we do, but i feel its an outside chance, in my opinion China have taken control of the African Iron ore and infrastrucutre plays..
Time will tell....in the absence of any counter bid the market will tell you that 57c is the highest bid we will get, and that no-other global major recognises that other value you think is there...and i am sure they have done their numbers..The price of 57c will not be a very low price as you claim.. Its very fair
Why does the recent market trade at 30c, and without NDRC Hanlong 20c if CLSA have a 90c target?
Research reports by many brokers are sometimes utter garbage and corporate driven, they have a BUY on BHP at $55, then they call it a hold last week at $32.....sometimes we should do the opposite to what they say.
I rate your technical knowledge and passion for the play, very impressive, research often doesnt take into account external factors, and in reality that report is very outdated...
In the absence of any other offer its a SELL at 57c
SDL Price at posting:
33.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
