please read this and prepare accordingly, page-79

Thanks to you all - unusually good discussion.

Michael Panzner wrote a book "Financial Armageddon" in which he suggested that initially deflation will grip as the debt bubble collapses but then as the authorities react inflation will take over. He argues that this whiplash will be the real killer (as those who correctly prepared themselves for deflation will be the worst hit when inflation kicks back in).

He has a website - www.financialarmageddon.com - not much there for me but there is a good interview of him on the stock shotz site (link on left side of fa site). He is a career investment banker, not some yeeha nutter.

My big concern with Panzner's view is that it is very US-centric in that because the US is a mess he assumes the rest of the world is in the same state. The dominant economy at the start of the 20th century was England but when it hit hard times in the first decade of the 20th century the US, which the rising power at that time, kept expanding. We all talk about when the rising power of that time fell into depression in the 30's not when the fading power of that time fell on hard times 25 years earlier. For me, our main hope today is China, not the US.