And more the reinforce the same:
This is the largest takeover of a Western company by a Russian company ever so expect that Russian pride will determine that they must be the winner. Anticipate at least another two bids:
The first take on Norilsk Nickel’s $5.3-billion bid for LionOre Mining is that this is a deal the Russian company simply can’t afford to miss.
LionOre has already inked a deal with Xstrata, one that gives the Swiss-based company the right to match any offer. The endorsement of LioOre's board, and the fact that it struck a friendly deal, gives Xstrata an enormous advantage in this contest. And CEO Mick Davis is known for his hard-charging style. But in Norilsk, Mr. Davis may be up against a more motivated buyer.
In a research note this morning, BMO Nesbitt Burns analysts said: “In our view, LionOre’s assets are a better strategic and operational fit with Norilsk’s.”
Then the analysts went to the all-important psycholgical underpinnings to these offers, the factors that don’t show up in financial ratios, but often determine who wins the day. BMO Nesbitt Burns mining analyst Victor Lazarovici told clients: “This is the largest takeover proposed by a Russian company for a Western-listed company, which makes it a disproportionately high-profile deal for Norilsk. Given the combination of these considerations, we would expect Norilsk ultimately to be the winner in any bidding war.”
The market is now expecting a bid-and-counter-bid fight, as Norilsk is offering $21.50 in cash for LionOre, up from Xstrata's $18.50 offer. (There were rumours that BHP Billiton was sniffing around LionOre, but it's unlikely the British company will dive in now.) LionOre's share price has jumped over the Norilsk offer to $23.59 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, with a staggering 31 million shares changing hands. BMO Nesbitt Burns, a dealer with a strong mining franchise, is the top trader, responsible for buying and selling more than 6 million shares this morning.
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LIM
lionore mining international limited.
And more the reinforce the same:This is the largest takeover of...
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