PLL BULLRUN LITHIUM, page-2

Right ...but couldn't you at least provide the actual source and maybe a quote from the article .... (like substitute s m a l l c a p s without the spaces for ***)

"Using data obtained from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the UN Trade & Development (UNCTAD) projects that lithium demand could rise by more than 1,500% between now and 2050.

UNCTAD says to achieve global 2030 net-zero emission targets, the lithium mining industry will need 70 new mines."

Of course, when has the IEA ever been correct on anything.

I think "*********" took it from Marketwatch (May 7) but its just a headline story. If you do the math, it being 2024, for something to rise by 1500% over 26 years (2050 - 2024) that is a CAGR ... Compound Annual Growth Rate ... of just a mere 11.25% ... which is not earth shattering at all ... in fact, its well below current growth rates for lithium supply ...

Same article
"Elsewhere, Statista is forecasting global demand for lithium in 2030 to surpass 2.4 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), doubling the demand forecast for 2025."

For something to double in 6 years ... use the simple rule 72 ... divide that by #time periods to get CAGR = ~12%

Are IEA suggesting that growth in Lithium demand is going to slow down since if the CAGR of 12% was maintained through 2050 then overall demand "could rise" by 1800% between now and 2050.
This is why (IMO) its important to DYOR as the devil is always in the details. Compounding formulas have a huge hockey stick ... so it is dangerous to look to far out ... 2050 is a long way off ... 2030 is "around the corner" so to speak when you consider how long it takes to get a mine from discovery to production. First mover advantage??

Here's a chart from Benchmark Minerals Q1 2024 (which you may have seen in my post over in SYA). So that's putting 2040 supply at say 6Mt LCE ... (up from 2024 of say 1.5Mt) which is a CAGR of 9% ... with supply up "only" 300%" in 2040, and "only" 800% if to 2050.



And just by way of illustration this is data I generated for the above scenario


The hockey stick of CAGR,...



But this is how all those models work OVER TIME. We know - almost for sure - that there will be periods of growth stops and starts - like we've just had that make forecasting challening as real world is "lumpy"

Just a word or so on being cautious.