It is all really straightforward. CY23 56500dmtCY24 113k dmt (or...

It is all really straightforward.
CY23 56500dmt
CY24 113k dmt (or 50% if output surpasses nameplate in which case I'll be eating my hat)
CYxx on it goes.
It changes if the partners jointly agree to go downstream. If / when that happens, SC required for the JV downstream will be allocated there first and the remainder will fulfill the LOM OTA obligations.
Should the partners decide not to go downstream they pay a relatively small penalty to Quebec. Interestingly this is a project that had such a notorious history that it ended up being handed over with no significant IQ equity stake.

Does it sound insane to have a LOM OTA that could last 20 years with a ceiling of US$900? Of course. But if people had done a little due dilligence they would have realised that JB and Co have a reputation for reckless myopathy and can kicking. When they agreed they were thinking in the then and there. That is how they operate. They could see the near term potential for 10x gains. By the time it does come to hurt, their Queensland investor base will all be out and ready to back another play - just as happened with Altura.

Back to NAL, here is the rub. Everybody knows that SYQ would be a global outlier in choosing to convert hardrock to Carbonate. To do so at this point in time in North America in competition with US Gov backed Thacker Pass and Chilean briners is madness. However it makes more short term financial sense for SYA if the capital outlay is a bit lower by finishing whatever previous operators attempted to cobble together and it may be a faster route to redirecting the majority of SC profits back towards SYA. Again it is short term thinking by JB and Co.

Even at Moblan of course SYA has intentions on Hydroxide - because that is what makes sense for SC. Yet just because PLL signed an offtake deal a couple of years ago that SYA holders do not like the terms of, they believe that PLL is being selfish and obstinate in pushing for Hydroxide - what the market wants and where there is a competitive advantage. No doubt SYA holders would be perfectly happy for NAL to be producing an intermediary Carbonate salt that someone else reprocesses in Quebec to Hydroxide. I have seen some even suggest to shut down NAL production until PLL agree to give up the OTA. That is truly cut off your nose to spite your face stuff.

So who is being selfish? Personally I'd be really frustrated if I were a PLL exec and had to keep trying to explain why Hydroxide was the only long term solution to deliver the most value.

Regardless, I just don't see downstream production happening in 2027 even if SYA wanted to. I've seen some posters saying, SYA should just get it done and get it done by 2025. Not a possible timeline imo.

We are headed towards a cyclical low and it is quite natural that holders start to despair. There is a mixture of hopium now fermenting that PLL will kindly renegotiate to give up their OTA or massively reduce the upside, because SYA has done "all the hard work', while at the same time knives being thrown suggesting PLL itself is in finacial strife and full of risk. All that is simply fed by jealousy and a desire for a bit of shadenfruede to soften the natural emotions involved with cycles.

Any time PLL mentions the OTA there is mass outrage. Claims PLL doesn't even acknowledge the work of SYA. Yet, when you see KP talk of NAL he is full of praise for SYA and gives them full credit. He has personally spruiked SYA more in the past 3 years than any SYA CEO. SYA just send out Dougal. Reminds me of James Brown sending Alex Cheeseman - then handling sales and odd jobs at Altura - to front an EGM.

The OTA is what it is. It can be renegotiated, as it obviously has been at a couple of points in time, but SYA does not have the cash to pay it out and I very much doubt holders could stomach the amount of equity required to cover it's worth.

What really should cease is this desire for shadenfruede and mud slinging. I have posted on the SYA threads that really they should just consider the OTA as something done at the time on lieu of more equity for PLL. It appears with current pricing that PLL got the better end of the deal, but maybe long term SYA did. From a PLL perspective, every PLL holder stands to gain from the success of SYA. PLL still holds around 12% of SYA.

What is obvious is none of those posters did their research on the industry and were happy to be spoonfed unrealistic timeframes, cost and production forecasts from SYA, while doing no peer comparison due dilligence. They sat in their echo chamber and are now slinging mud and throwing out obscure accusations and solutions to what is just a normal part of an industry cycle. Now that is a tad too kind because there are a couple of older hands that would know better but it is not in their interest to be particularly truthful on forums.

This situation reminds me of when Alita was failing. Despite GXY having heavily participated in a CR to keep it afloat, when the news filtered through that A40 was in strife, holders wanted GXY to suffer.

Anyway... Far too much spite on HC. In this case way to much hypocrisy as retail investors target a JV investor for a project they would not have without the participation of that investor. Authier (unworkable) and Tansim would be the sum total of SYA.

And yeah, everyone is just going to have to continue to put up with the alternative facts and false claims that it isn't a LOM OTA. Just get used to it.