If you haven't watched the latest RKE Rockstock Channel...

If you haven't watched the latest RKE Rockstock Channel interview I recommended a viewing.

I found this piece interesting ... this is Fastmarkets 10yr average forecast

"we look at our 10-year average price forecast - we have it at $23.3/Kg, about $1,900/t for spodumene. At those prices over a 10-year average, that certainly is enough to hit those incentive targets that Paul has mentioned. Albemarle mentioned on their call a couple of days ago, they were talking $20/Kg, give or take a few dollars - obviously depends on deposit type, region, flow sheet. That cost basis increases as you move forward because you're targeting lower quality assets and because of inflation."

So that makes for some easy math. For PLL and NAL offtake ... cost basis becomes the ceiling and project level FCF would be in the range of say $800/t when sold spot market to China and probably around $900+/t for contracted pricing. Call it +/- US$90M per year. Remember though its a 10 year average and they are not all that bullish for the 2nd half of 2024 (hmmm hope they are wrong on that call ... I can see the cheers from the other side were that to happen ... since they imply SYA panders to PLL wishes on allocation schedule this year).

Add to that our 25% interest from sales made by JV (assuming they hit say US$750 (or lower) as CoP + transport and nail an OTA and get production up around that 220Ktpy mark) ...+/- $26M net to PLL (but remaining in the JV).

Anyhow the important bit is the 10 yr avg ... something that might be plugged into a model by a lending agency (or a partner) when figuring what an investment in Carbonate plant might be worth. Paul (Graves) says $20/Kg is the minimum incentive price required for NA Carbonate investment.