PLL General Discussion, page-2567

When will analysts play "catch up" or do they think their forecast and concensus remains "current"

For the record, this is whats "current" (for the NASDAQ listing)





Wall street analyst targets all start around the revenue forecast, for which concensus is



This is REVENUE not income. This is the headline number (so before QP adjustments and well before any royalties, taxes (e.g VAT) and marketing costs (e.g. freight).

I'm most interest in the "red circled" estimates ... so ~$90M of Revenue for H2'24.
Remembering the forecast supplied in Q2 Earnings call for shipments in H2 is 97Mt (midpoint of 93 - 101)




Implied sales price is roughly $90M/97 = US$923/t (so ~$1,015/t SC6) ... I'll go with $900/t (or $1,000/t SC6)

As I write, spot Hydroxide is US$10,400 per Fastmarkets. In my ESTIMATED formula based pricing at my lowest Margin of 7% the implied SC6 price is US$1,373 SC6 or about $1,243 for SC5.4 ... it would be lower if the agreed margin is lower than 7% or the processing fee higher than $2,500/t. Even at 5% margin and $4,000 processing fee the formula price is US$1,345 (so $30/t lower).

That assumes all TSLA ... which isn't true. If I go with 50% shipped to TSLA at $1,200/t then remaining 50% has to average just $600/t to get the overall average at $900/t for this half year.

It will be very interesting to see how close those analyst forecasts are when Q3 results come in ... with hopefully shipments to TSLA included.