David Deckelbaum (Sell-side Research Analyst) at Cowen on HK Rock Stock E65
"our top idea out of our entire coverage universe, including oil, I guess for 2023 is Piedmont lithium"
(DD) " .... you know, our top idea out of our entire coverage universe, including oil, I guess for 2023 is Piedmont lithium."
(HK) Really of all of the coverage in your universe or all stocks that Cowen covers?
(DD) Well each analyst at Cowen chooses a top idea, so it would be within my coverage universe, but I think you know you brought up sort of non-developers and I think that there's a number of new names to lithium space. I think we track something like 29 projects coming online between now and 2025 and about two-thirds of them are coming from developing the names that have not produced lithium before you have a number of very impactful catalysts in the beginning of this year for some of those names including Lithium Americas but for Piedmont specifically and we see the impact of the NAL mine restart up in Quebec through operator Sayona is having a huge cashflow, you know windfall to Piedmont’s in the back half of this year. Just given their off-take arrangement, that if you look at the market cap of the company today sub $900 million now, within two years they could earn that entire market cap just in EBITDA off of the NAL offtake and that's before considering so many other aspects of the Piedmont business. We've seen that they've already received $142Million DOE grant to fund the Tennessee lithium project that would cover I think about 20% of estimated capex for that conversion facility. You obviously have the Ewoyaa project in Ghana coming online in the next couple years. Still waiting for a finalized DFS there and you know perhaps a resource update. There's just I think a ton of catalysts that really drive this re-rating for pre-producing names to being a post-production name that I think is just very difficult for investors to risk. Now it's just a matter of does NAL come online in March or not and presuming that it does, I think that this is just a a mispriced equity right now."
I agree!!!
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