PLL General Discussion, page-637

But do you believe GS forecast?
(BTW ... ballsy move to post that in your house ... if any PLL stalwart did it the howls of downramper would be echoing loudly).

Lots of people think GS are "incompetent idiots" and fools and have no idea how to model prices and so forth. GS are a lot of things but incompetent and fools aren't phrases I would use.

For GS prices to be "true" then lots of other things have to happen - and a lot of these things are Economics 9xx - and out of scope for HC. Might as well be discussing voodoo.

On the simple side of the voodoo though is the understanding of basic Supply and Demand. Right now it is obvious that the GROWTH in Demand has far outstripped the GROWTH is Supply leading to a Supply deficit. The #1 (#2 and #3) driver of demand growth has been growth in EV demand. A big part of the deep quant equation is EV growth. What would "crash" that (temporarily). Whatever else is happening around us, the supply equation is being capitalized and built - this is the supply response and hitting "pause" if necessary wont be easy.

I dont believe that GS forecast numbers in 2024 will be realized.

On the other hand if they are realized then at least producing carbonate/hydroxide becomes more in line with the overall historical avg economics of production .... like miners prodcuing at US$500 - US$600 and selling at US$800 (say 30% margin) and Refiners producing at (6.5x$600 + $3,500) and selling at $11,000 (a margin of ~33%) ... or if you like SC6 about 7.5% of LiOH price ... all in line with history.

Then the narrative becomes what now ... is BL the brilliant mining mind SYA hold him up to be? Is KP the brilliant banker we say he is having put toether a portfolio of refining to deliver a much needed chemical into a HIGH GROWTH market (which for GS forecast to be true is cannot be). At least we wont havr to listen to endless argument over OTA and downstreaming refining in Quebec.

Oh and BTW ... now where is that capital going to come from to build all of that Quebec refining in the market forecast by GS.

I'll take a page from @GT3loui this one time (because I don't think the "ASX is broken" nor the much larger exchanges abroad either)
- but if you "like" GS forecast you can ONLY BE SHORT lithium, which in principle I have nothing against. Can't like it and be long PLL/A11/SYA/CXO/LTR/PLS etc.

Irrespective of the price of SC6 the picture is the same relative relationship between SYA and PLL. The "super profit" $$$ from sales of SC above the $900/t have gone ... but then so too has much of the incentive to invest further capital to increase capacity and the cash flow to build a refinery has well gone away for most economic return models.

So back what is needed for GS forecast to happen. If those "background variables" occur an $800/t SC6 is the least of my concerns.