PLS A NPV Valuation, page-18

The industry can't meet that demand, as already demonstrated, those battery applications can only grow/be deployed as fast as can be supplied. The upstream bottleneck has moved all the way down the end product, in form of higher prices, and now said bottleneck is flowing back upstream, adjusting to the demand it can supply, which is exacerbated by a slowing global economy.

As said, incumbent producers will be major beneficiaries, they are printing cash now, not in 2 years, they will expand, which will maintain income and grow their market share. There is new projects expected to come on line in 23 and 24, meanwhile producers will also expand, as result, market moves towards balance, and yes, some of the demand that cannot be supplied today will get filled.

Put another way, if you are a downstream actor wanting to build chem, cathode or cell capacity, would you not step back and take a more cautious stance atm, given their isn't enough upstream materials to feed any new ex-China capacity for the medium term. Call me crazy, but I'd be putting those plans on hold until I can secure raw material supply, which as said isn't available medium term. In this context, the EU and the US are basket cases for the next few years, China will remain the epicentre, followed by South Korea and Japan to a lessor extent. Incumbent cell producers from those countries are setting up capacity overseas, for example CATL is setting up in the EU and will have access to supply of chems and other components via China, while EU hopefuls will be sitting idle, with money sunk. South Korean chem and cell makers similar, setting up capacity in the US, but at this point and for the next few years are still import dependent on Chinese midstream supply chains. AIMO, not advice, please DYOR