I think I see a possible reason why it could be difficult to see those 20 ads a day.
Re the 1000km a day ... if you’re driving those distances regularly enough to warrant owning a car that is set up for that work then maybe waiting a bit longer makes sense. In terms of investing though, I’m not waiting for the tech to reach that stage simply because the average punter doesn’t need a car that has that range.
On purchase price, how long will it take do you think for the cost of ownership (different to purchase price of course) reaches parity with ICE cars? This requires some thought about more than the sticker price. Once car manufacturers are geared up for larger supply capability and their cost curves drop accordingly, I won’t be surprised if the marketing includes a hint at longer term hip pocket impact (maybe if there is a short period of austerity associated with an economic slow down that will just help the public to recognise the cost savings beyond sticker price. Of course the sticker price will drop too).
Some ABS values might be worth considering here (https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/9208.0). The average Aussie passenger car clocks up about 12.5k km per year or about 35km per day. Even at 20kWh/100km (https://pushevs.com/2018/07/29/range-efficiency-test-of-10-electric-cars/), that’s only a drain of 7kWh per day on average for Aussie passenger vehicles. Let’s be reasonable though and say the consumption is double that (check out the source of the 20kWh/100km, their tests were made in city and highway mixed driving in Barcelona in July 2018 using cars like Hyundai Ioniq, Nissan Leaf, BMW i3, VW eGolf, Renault Zoe and I-Pace and Teslas). So assume the “average” Aussie is going to consume about 14kWh per day driving their EV. How long will that take to recharge?
Well the Shell site (yep, Shell oil is this source) suggests ... https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/new-energies/electric-vehicle-charging.html home recharge units will supply about 22kW, service station and other on-the-go sites will provide 50-300kW (these are already being installed by Shell in Europe ... “In 2018, Shell began offering high-powered chargers in partnership with charging network operator IONITY. These will take less than 10 minutes to charge the latest next-generation electric vehicles, which will make them up to three times faster than any other charger currently available.” and then there’s the QLD company Tritium with chargers up to 475kW capability (https://www.tritium.com.au/product/productitem?url=veefil-pk). So, it’s not as simple as take the 14kWh and divide by the chargers maximum charge supply rate as batteries have different charge profiles depending on what state of charge they are charging from, at and to. But for simplicity here (given we’ve already doubled the average daily energy use, let’s just go 14kWh/22kW ... hey that’s about 0.5 or 30 minutes at home after the day’s driving! Or if you don’t want to fill up the missing 14kWh that night because your car has a 40kWh battery (new Leaf), maybe you drive another day and plug in each second day - by morning it’s well and truly full and probably prewarmed or precooled the interior depending on the season
So, I’m sure there will be plenty to come along soon and poke various holes in this little story and I’m happy for them to do so. My purpose here was just to do a little analysis of a need for a range of 1000km and 5 minute filling for that range. You see, I’m not buying shares in the EV industry to drive 1000km with a 5 minute refill because the vast majority of vehicle users don’t need that capability and I’m investing in what they will actually need and what the industry is busy building to supply. The “need” for a larger range (on average) is just what they have felt they “might need” up until now because they don’t like the idea of keeping a tank of fuel at home to top up the car fuel tank each night so they buy a car with a bigger fuel tank and just go the the petrol station less regularly to trundle about their 30-40km on average (ABS data) per day.
Don’t get me wrong, I fully realise that sometimes some people do drive the full fuel tank distance in one go. I love driving holidays and will do the 8,000km in a week trips (have done). I’ll also do the up the beach camping trips, large boat towing trips, weekends away to the mountains or beach but I also realise now that I could still do those things without having to own the large fuel guzzling 4WD I do have. I could have the more useful smaller around town car for the “average” usual trips and then rent, hire etc the other vehicle for the other times... in our increasingly “sharing” economy how long will it take for that idea to permeate society? I recon not long - don’t be caught out for too long (FA not TA I recognise and the current short term movements are bloody annoying I agree!).
(20min delay)
